Another great week. I especially liked the reading recommendations, and reading of Worth's recognition made my week. I will share one thought I had, and it is not a critique, but something I ponder. Lead/Lag. I sometimes feel that the most leading indicator of a future x-ring shot, is someone who just put the last two in the x-ring. I once argued with a SOTF commander who posited that I was too focused on finding the person that emplaced the last IED, instead of focusing on who would lay the next IED. I thought the person who emplaced the last one was the most likely to set the next. I know this is somewhat pedantic, but it also has to do with creativity and emergence. (Topics you have posted about a bit lately). What worked yesterday both is the most likely to work tomorrow, and also presents vulnerability to strategic drift. I have no solution, just thought I would share that your post got me thinking.
Brett, As always thank you for your thoughtful comments. I agree that usually the best predictor of future performance is past performance. That future performance will be the product of reengaging in the lead indicators that led to the past performance. I suspect that the IED layer would begin scouting a new location, visiting the IED maker, and loading a shovel into his car. It would seem that solving the IED problem would best be solved by looking for the lead indicators rather than waiting for the deadly consequences of the next lag indicator.
Another great week. I especially liked the reading recommendations, and reading of Worth's recognition made my week. I will share one thought I had, and it is not a critique, but something I ponder. Lead/Lag. I sometimes feel that the most leading indicator of a future x-ring shot, is someone who just put the last two in the x-ring. I once argued with a SOTF commander who posited that I was too focused on finding the person that emplaced the last IED, instead of focusing on who would lay the next IED. I thought the person who emplaced the last one was the most likely to set the next. I know this is somewhat pedantic, but it also has to do with creativity and emergence. (Topics you have posted about a bit lately). What worked yesterday both is the most likely to work tomorrow, and also presents vulnerability to strategic drift. I have no solution, just thought I would share that your post got me thinking.
Brett, As always thank you for your thoughtful comments. I agree that usually the best predictor of future performance is past performance. That future performance will be the product of reengaging in the lead indicators that led to the past performance. I suspect that the IED layer would begin scouting a new location, visiting the IED maker, and loading a shovel into his car. It would seem that solving the IED problem would best be solved by looking for the lead indicators rather than waiting for the deadly consequences of the next lag indicator.